Dr. Ron Paul has a lot of opinions I don't share. He seems anchored to his ideology and often makes silly remarks because of his inability to be flexible. He has a strange eyebrow that needs to be shaved or combed. I have been a big fan of his for nearly as long as I've followed politics.
We find ourselves in a very strange times when it comes to American politics. I went into this primary run with the mindset that it was very possible this campaign cycle might be the most unconventional process in quite some time. I even authored pieces about it and have called it a circus show for several months. But, believe it or not, I didn't officially throw out the book of conventionalism until this very week. It would be hard to argue that Newt Gingrich isn't the front runner in the GOP primaries. Even though many others (Trump, Bachmann, Perry, Cain) have all been at the top in polls for several weeks, this time it's for real. Mitt Romney was still considered the man to beat all along, even when he was trailing. Not anymore.
Simply the fact Gingrich finds himself controlling his own destiny isn't the sole basis for believing this year is like no other year. The fact that Ron Paul has actually made a blip on the radar is the true indicator for me. Because I've always been a fan of Dr. Paul I have always talked about him when elections roll around. Naturally, there are others that share my views about Paul and like him as well and they join in on the conversation. And inevitably there will always be the news coverage about Paul on how he gets no news coverage. But he's always been the guy we like but can't really win. What strikes me about this year, and specifically this exact time and moment, is Paul has finally gained traction with others outside of the faithful Paul following.
If I had to honestly guess the chance of Dr. Paul winning the Republican nomination I would list it at about 2-3%. This is exciting. If you have been a fan of Paul for any length of time then you would understand the elation. What makes it even more exciting to me is the fact that it is me and the people just like me that will decide the next election. That's nothing that new to me but it is fun to have a horse in the field even if that horse is in his late seventies, three legged, and one and half eyebrowed.
I've been very candid about my disgust of the Republican Party. They have abandoned ideas and dummied down their base to cater to the corporations. There is plenty to point at on the other side of the aisle but I'm not concerned with them. They will run Obama for President and I'm thankful he will be their nominee. I'm concerned about who the GOP will nominate and I hold the power as to whether or not that nominee will win the general. When I say me I'm referring to me and the other ten percent of the GOP that jumped ship in 2008 and turned red states blue.
The Tea Party emerged and dominated the midterms. They took credit for things that were part of the normal cycle. I'll concede they did win in record numbers and that is notable and speaks to their influence and power but the Republicans would have taken over the House anyway. And one could argue they might have won the Senate if the Tea Party never surfaced, that Harry Reid won and continues to lead the Senate is a direct result of the Tea Party.
The Tea Party undeniably controls a portion of the GOP. They proved it to all of us during the debt ceiling debate and eventual decline of our nation's credit rating. And they are again proving it to us during the primary season. It has been the belief of many pundits and followers of politics that eventually "the reasonable" base of the GOP would come to its senses and nominate Romney. I now feel confident arguing that number of "reasonable" members of the base is roughly 25% and no more. That isn't enough to get their choice on the ballot to go head to head with Obama. That this belief (the base will awaken) has lasted this long defies the odds. Just last election the base lost out and McCain won and then slapped the base with a Palin nomination. The base lost in the midterms, successful Tea Party candidates ousted many of the base. Moderate became a bad word. So it isn't that shocking the base will lose again to the Tea Party. I have predicted this for quite some time even though I've never known the exact name other than "not Romney". I have even prophesied about it and went out on a limb and said the short term win and long term obliteration in the general might be the only way the GOP can free itself from the hostage situation it finds itself in.
This is why 2 to 3 percent is so exciting to me. I had a zero percent chance going into this election that anything other than Obama striking down the Tea Party could happen to get the GOP back on track to becoming relevant. Even the slightest raise from zero to three fills me with incredible hope. Akin to the hope I felt when I cast my vote for Obama in 2008, voting for a Democrat for President for the first time in my life.
If you find yourself one of those people that will eventually vote for whomever comes out of the primaries in the Republican field then it isn't the Tea Party that truly holds you hostage at this moment, it is me. Me and my crowd want a true debate of ideas between Obama and his competitor, no one in the field will provide that except Ron Paul. Even if Paul lost in the general it would do this country a service and it would make the GOP relevant, four years ahead of my prediction. It is an enormous opportunity to truly get this country back on track. Not because Ron Paul is the savior, nor Obama, but because we could have meaningful discussion about issues that truly impact our daily lives. The longer we delay from even beginning to discuss and debate serious problems the harder it will be on our future generations. For a party that is quick to claim "patriotism" and proves it by wearing a nice shiny flag pin on all their suits and orgasms every time a country song mentions how great our country is and how we kick ass, I see no greater opportunity to show your love of this nation by demanding your party nominate a candidate that speaks on behalf of the people. If you fail to do that then you have participated in the re-election of Barack Obama. I'm cool either way.
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