The Levy Was Dry

The idea of tithing is mentioned in The Bible. God commands his followers to give a part or their animals and crops back to the church.

Tithe: transitive verb - to pay or give a tenth part of especially for the support of the church

The instructions are pretty easy to follow. If you acquire ten mules then you should give the tenth one back to God and let Him give it to the less fortunate. Notice the poor person, who doesn't have a mule, isn't required to tithe. The poor person will actually be the benefactor of the tithe and receive a mule even though they never contribute to the system.

Approximately 2000 years later it seems we have adopted a different attitude about the givers and takers of our times. Now it seems we look down upon them and vilify the poor and don't appreciate the idea of being forced to give away part of our hard earned income to support those who feel entitled.

To be fair to those who do harbor this resentment of the needy, God's plan was for the church to take care of them and not the government. But this still seems like an inconsistent attitude, begrudging the poor, once walked through to completion. If one honestly believes this nation was founded on Christian values and they believe part of the problem we face in modern times is the fact our country has gotten away from its Christian roots, then it would seem like the idea of the government helping out the needy would be more embraced by the followers of Christ.

The man that just ran for President of the United States of America and received about sixty million votes and lost recently explained why he thinks he didn't win:
"The president's campaign, if you will, focused on giving targeted groups a big gift...With regards to African American voters, Obamacare was a huge plus...Likewise with Hispanic voters, free health care was a big plus."

On election night Bill O'Reilly explained why he thought Romney was going to lose:
"It's not a traditional America anymore. The white establishment is now the minority. There are 50 percent of the voting public who want stuff...You're going to see a tremendous Hispanic vote for President Obama...and women will probably break President Obama's way. People feel like they are entitled to things, and which candidate, between the two, is going to give them things?"

Now, completely ignoring the blatant racism and sexism (perhaps another blog post on a different day), it seems obvious these people don't really view the needy the same way God did. God didn't decipher between which poor people to give to and he didn't set criteria for them to be the benefactor; He simply gave to them because they were poor. And what He gave them was your hard earned crops and livestock.

I'm not suggesting there isn't waste and inefficient parts of our entitlement programs. And I'm not suggesting people can't discuss those areas without seeming cold and mean. But what I am suggesting is the attitude we hold toward the poor seems to be out of alignment from the entity most people claim to follow.

Neither derivative Nor dependent

The election was a very interesting observation of the psyche of America. The world is a complicated place and there are literally thousands of different issues to address when attempting to govern a society of 314 million people. When all of those categories and ideas and worldviews and facts and lies and agendas got funneled into a two party system formula the end result was a clash of two entirely different realities.

I like President Obama and feel like I've been candid about that sentiment. I didn't even dislike Mitt Romney; I just disliked what he became when running for President. The Republican Party has been a mess for several years and the primary season forced Romney to embrace a reality of doom and gloom and trying to defend everything that was good about him (universal healthcare for his state, his success at Bain Capital, the fact that he was rich and good with his money). Even though I'm not a Democrat, I feel like they are at least trying to compromise and move forward. The Republicans have offered nothing but obstruction. My choice to vote for Obama really boiled down to something that simple.  So that is that as far as the politics of the election.

The most interesting part of the entire process was the collision course of two entirely different views of reality. One side, pretty much half of the country, dismissed fact after fact and insisted reality was based on "feeling". Trickle Down Economics feels like it should work despite every fact that shows it hasn't. Climate Change feels like a hoax and government conspiracy and 95% of the scientists on the planet are on their payroll. It feels like the various rights of women, ranging from their equality in the workplace to their right to control their own body, should be granted by old white guys. It feels like Karl Rove and Dick Morris and Rush Limbaugh should know what they're talking about when it comes to elections and the "effeminate" Nate Silver must be in the tank for the left because he believes in skewed polling. It feels like the government should be smaller and stay out of our lives until disaster strikes and we want the government to step up and save the day.

About three o'clock on election day the first information was released: the exit polling data. It seemed everyone was reporting high turnout for BOTH sides. This wasn't the expected reality of half of the country. They had been promised the left wasn't as excited to vote as those on the right were. They were informed many of the people that voted for Obama in 2008 were disgruntled and weren't going to vote for him again. They were told the younger vote wouldn't turn out this election. They were instructed on the mathematics of the independent voter and how it favored a Romney victory in a landslide. They were shown electoral maps with states painted red even though Obama lead in nearly every swing state. They were given bogus predictions about the election and not one person ever foresaw a blowout win by Obama.

By four thirty in the afternoon I was extremely confident Obama had won the election and was getting giddy about the prospect of a triple digit win. At 4:50pm I posted to my Facebook wall, "49-3. Holy Shit. (wink, wink)". At this time Obama had only gathered three electoral votes to Romney's 49. By five thirty I was extremely confident Obama was on his way to 332. Florida seemed in the bag with the returns that were still out at that time. Virginia was a little scary to me but the scenario was nearly a carbon copy of that in Florida with the only remaining returns coming from huge Obama areas. Anyone that had communications with me during this time frame can testify to my outlook at that time. One text I received from a person very close to me commented about how they were surprised how much red they were seeing and how well Romney was doing. I texted back and explained the election was over and Obama was going to win handily. My favorite text of the evening followed: "What channel are you watching?"

Now I'm going to open up to you more than I normally do. Sure, I share a lot of ideas and jot down a lot of words talking about different things, but I don't normally get too personal with you about things that are close to me. My motivation is almost always to offer sanity and some form of entertainment for anyone that might want to read my stuff. My hope is to prod those that don't think they need prodding and to provide reassurance to those that must feel like they are alone at times and let them know there are others out there in the sea of chaos. Occasionally I will comment in a tongue-in-cheek way and remind my viewers that I have removed myself for pulling for an outcome in regard to the plight of humanity. But the truth is, this is really where I land on most issues. It's not because I'm callus or don't believe love is the answer; it's because it works for me. It's much more peaceful and quiet this way. I have very good friends that root for outcomes and it seems draining to me on the outside looking in. On top of that, it seems pointless. None of this means I abandon being the best person I can be or caring about my fellow brothers. It just means I go with it and speak my piece and enjoy the breeze whichever way it may blow.

Having stated all of that, I can't deny my interest in the outcome of this election. A different result would have affected me at some level. I could have easily swallowed the pill if it were simply accepting Romney as the President. I wouldn't have been devastated by the thought of Mitt Romney running the country like many on the right seem to be by another four years of Obama. I wasn't under the impression our country would fail and socialism would take over if Romney won to begin with. I wasn't under the impression our military would be surpassed by Russia or China or Iran if Romney won. I wasn't under the impression businesses across the country would go under if Romney won. So even though I have different ideas about which direction to go, I wouldn't have been unable to continue going about my normal day to day business if Romney was my President.

However, what would have been very different would be the reality I would have to live in. A reality where facts no longer mattered. A reality where models that successfully predict the likelihood of outcomes are viewed as witchcraft. A reality where religious dogma determined the liberty of an individual and their right to pursue their own happiness. A reality where people can get air time on television and spout nonsense and lies and gut feelings and that trumps truth. A reality where science and faith are on equal footing. A reality that doesn't cherish and rely on compromise when coexisting with one another. A reality that adopts "my way or the highway" as its motto. A reality that would rather demonize than discuss. A reality that is at odds with reality.

For my own personal reasons I found myself really pulling for an outcome. I work so hard to decipher the hidden truths that seem to willfully evade us. I use the best models known to me to help me on my endeavor. I vigorously crunch my own numbers into my own personal happiness model and enjoy the results. Things aren't perfect in the world because of this. Nor are they perfect with my country, the things around me, or even me. But I maintain sanity and happiness a sufficient amount of the time and this means everything to me. You can take everything in my life (everything I have, I do, I am) and walk it right back down to that principle of maintaining harmony.

This election seemed to threaten my reality in some way. I'm sure I would have been able to adapt but I didn't feel the need. I can't imagine my adaptation wouldn't involve a more cynical view of humanity and a further retreat from cheering for the home team.  I'm relieved I didn't have to swallow that pill.

Four years ago I found myself teary-eyed on election night. The positive energy, people coming out onto the streets, huge crowds gathering to watch the new President speak, the making of history, it all seemed overwhelming to me. I honestly didn't think I could feel anything like that from this election, even if Obama won again. I was wrong.

Even though the reasons weren't the same, the feeling of being overwhelmed with joy was the same. And even though most of the time I truly don't root for outcomes, I can't help but feel a positive vibe when humanity does the right thing. It still feels good to experience that energy. We didn't do the right thing simply because we reelected our president. We did the right thing because we validated this reality. We can now go forward using the best models we have discovered to this point and don't have to adopt new ones that are pulled from the asses of asses.

Silver Lining

One of the biggest functions of the human brain is to crunch numbers and make predictions. It takes in millions of pieces of information every second, processes what it deems relevant to its role in the universe (however wrong that sense of relevance may be), and predicts what will happen next given everything it knows. 

No matter who you are or what you do in life you're probably in touch with your number crunching abilities in some aspect of your life. You are probably very knowledgeable about some things in some certain area and can successfully predict how things will unfold better than the average person. You probably know someone else that has a number crunching expertise in some other area.

Most people that own stock in the Stock Market rely on someone else to invest their money. It would seem that the majority of people have come to terms with the idea that someone else with more knowledge and understanding in this field is more equipped to make decisions of this nature. It would seem we value the people that are better predictors of the Market to handle our money than those that have less of a track record and those that are better at it certainly are financially compensated for their abilities. Has anyone ever given you a "tip" on investing in a "sure thing"? Naturally you evaluated what you thought about their predicting ability when taking this "advice", didn't you?

A lot of people enjoy going to the race track and betting on the ponies. I've seen people attend races and bet on which horses look the best. I've seen people bet on the names of the horses. A lot of people "in the know" at the track will simply place their money on the best jockey. They understand that jockey, usually, got to choose his pick of the litter. That jockey is going to make money based on how well he finishes in the race. They understand that jockey has inside information they don't have. Other people purchase a forum, a newspaper looking thing that is loaded with tons of information about everything pertaining to each race. The forum is raw information and lots of it. The more than casual bettor likes to crunch all of the numbers in the forum and try to successfully predict the winning horse(s). Those that do it better than others are financially rewarded for their talents of crunching the numbers.

We just experienced a huge storm on the East Coast. We knew this storm was coming and what to expect because someone crunched the numbers for us. We trust them, for the most part, because we know they know what they're doing. They are taking all the raw data and interpreting it and trying to successfully predict what will happen next. Even though it all seems so over the top when we see the media handle storms, they actually do save lives by passing on the information gathered by the number crunchers prior to the storm impacting us. 

People that live in earthquake zones usually know about it and pay insurance based on this reality of number crunching. Same is true for flood zones. Vegas thrives off of being able to predict the number of people that will bet equally on each side of a proposition and then they charge a small ten percent service fee for delivering this ability. Anyone that's ever walked on the Moon (I capitalize it - makes sense to me) put their lives in the hands of people that crunched a lot of numbers. So it would seem the notion of relying on others to interpret information is a valued trait in our society.

Nate Silver is a guy that crunches the numbers when it comes to elections. He gained a small level of fame back in 2008 when he very accurately predicted how all but one (tiny) state would fall in the electoral college. He drilled his predictions in The Senate that year. A couple years later he laid out the odds of the Republicans whooping ass in The House and he predicted they were quite high; he was right. This year Silver has gained even more fame because those on the right are try to delegitimize him. 

Silver has kind of a geeky look about him. He claims he used to be pretty successful at internet poker (after he sold a system to Baseball Prospectus that predicted the performance levels and development of MLB players) and leveraged some of his winnings to get him into a position where he could make a living in another arena. He's willing to crunch numbers on just about anything but it's his election predictions that have gained him notoriety. He's fairly candid about his process for crunching the numbers but he purposefully withholds the special sauce that makes his Big Mac's unique. I suspect he does this because this is his livelihood and his model is valuable. And why wouldn't a person that can successfully evaluate raw data and predict the likelihood that a given event will happen next be valuable to society? In 2009 he was listed by Time magazine as one of the 100 most influential people in the world. In 2010 The New York Times licensed Silver's prediction blog for publication by their paper. 

Nate Silver has been crunching the numbers of this election for the last four years. He has continually listed various probabilities for many months now. The numbers have moved in different directions over the months and Obama has almost always held the lead on Silvers FiveThirtyEight Blog. But the one probability that always gets people's attention is the odds of each presidential candidate of winning. At the time I write this essay, five days before the election, Silver's site predicts Obama with a 79% chance of winning and Romney a 21% chance. 

In the last two weeks I've heard all of the talking heads on the right dismiss the lamestream media and their liberal leaning polls. Rove, Morris, Limbaugh, Beck, and the entire Fox News Network have been calling foul on the polls that suggest Obama is winning. And Nate Silver has been targeted as an "ideologue" and a "joke", along with having "effeminate qualities", by those that don't like his numbers. 

Do you think when the owner of a football team sees his team listed as a two touchdown underdog that he tends to agree with the line or do you think it's more likely the owner thinks his team is better than what the odds makers think? Do you think when someone shows you a picture of their baby they accurately predict the likelihood that you'll think it's as adorable as they think it is? Do you think all of the above mentioned entities that are dismissing the polls that favor Obama have an interest in the outcome of the election? 

I want Nate Silver to be right because I want Nate Silver to be right. I love that we have a numbers cruncher that appears to be this good in this arena amongst us. It's information. It's difficult information to interpret. It's above most of our pay grades and we should relish the fact someone or something is capable of accurately interpreting this data. We are so grateful in so many other areas for this ability that others provide us. We seek out this information because inside knowledge, on any subject matter, is hard to obtain in life. 

If Silver had the numbers switched and predicted Romney to be the favorite I would be sad. The guy I want to win would be viewed as the underdog by the guy I think is good at predicting the outcomes of elections. That wouldn't make me change my opinion of Silver. Even if Silver gets this election wrong it probably won't change my respect for his talent. He's told us all along the chance, very specifically, that he'll get it wrong. When his model starts to fail at a number outside of his predictions then I'll consider reevaluating my admiration of him. Until then I'll continue to root for him because it's good for all of us to have him around. 

In a time where we get nothing but punditry about meaningless conversations, where the right and left spin everything in every direction, where we no longer agree on facts, where we lack the desire to find common ground with one another, would we not embrace this numbers cruncher? Rooting against Silver is rooting against valuable knowledge. Even if it turns out that Silver just got lucky and had a good run but he's really full a shit and was making stuff up, why would we want to root against him? What has he done wrong to this point? 

In the end this has little to do with politics for me. It has everything to do with how we coexist with one another. We should all desire the best working models known to man to help guide us in our endeavors. This doesn't mean we can't disagree. It doesn't mean that you have to vote for the same guy I'm voting for. Nor does it mean some of our best known models might fail us in the future. It simply means we all have to share the desire to search out those models and embrace them when we find them. We certainly can't root against discovering them. 

Sandy

How I Got Here

Immediately after the second debate I received a very lengthy text from a good friend. This friend is a solid Republican and always has been. He never has sent me a text like it in all our many years of being pals. He was very polite but he definitely sounded angry or maybe frustrated is a better term or maybe a little of both; it was hard to tell. Then he sent about four more lengthy texts. I wondered at first if he was drunk but he seemed to be making decent sense and all his words were spelled correctly (something even a smart phone can't completely compensate for - drunk texting).

The angle he presented was, "I hope you're happy with your guy". He then laid out a reasonable case against Obamacare and how it will be the demise of our country. He pointed out that the lack of compromise in Washington isn't all on the shoulders of the GOP and I agreed. He pointed out a lot of "mistruths" Obama has spoken and promised and, again, I agreed. He argued the Democratic position on the economy and their vision of regulation and taxes is the wrong approach.

My replies were short, for the most part, and very neutral. I would never defend Obama in my replies and continually pointed out I don't really align with the Democratic view overall. However, I would end each response letting him know I just didn't feel the Republican Party was speaking to a guy like me anymore. I explained I still felt very conservative in my mind but the words no longer mean what they used to mean to the, now, majority of the Party. On top of that, they totally shunned my vote. They never once tried to reason with me. The strategy was to appease the far right for as long as they had to and then totally pivot to the undecided, uninformed voter and tell them whatever they wanted to hear. In the long run their strategy might work and they can go on to rule without my support. We'll know the answer to that soon enough.

Another point, and probably the deeper message of the entire discussion, was his hitting on the issue of, "I just find it hard to believe a smart guy like you would end up drawing the conclusions you do." I mean this with all humility and sincerity (really I do), I don't think I'm that smart. I was always the goofball and of two of my closest friends I was the dumbest. No doubt, even at a young age, I was "bright". Maybe it's impossible to explain and convey properly but I know the reality of it all because it exists in my head. There are so many people that come in and comment and contribute on my threads on Facebook, about an array of topics, and bring great insight and perspective. So many people that are smarter than me in so many different areas: politics, science, economy, math, English, and the list goes on and on. I am very simple and only seek common ground from people so we can successfully share the same reality.

When it comes to this specific election my position isn't that complicated. It seems to be that most people on both sides of the aisle pretty much agree George W. Bush was a shitty President and left us with a mess. Even if they don't outwardly express their view using the same adjectives I use, it still seems pretty obvious even the Republicans weren't too fond of him when it was all said and done. The proof is The Tea Party. They are a bunch of Republicans that don't think Bush lead the way they want to be lead on many fronts. Another piece of evidence supporting the claim they didn't like him is the fact they only complain about Democrats always using the "inherited a mess" phrase over and over. They never dispute that fact, instead they just complain about the Obama supporters always using it as an excuse. So it would seem at this point, right after the Bush years, we all land on some common ground of sorts. Where to go from there is an entirely different matter but the fact remains we are standing on common footing at that moment.

The McCain election was an entirely different animal than the current election in my decision making process. I liked John McCain. I had liked him for a long time. McCain was my preferred choice over W. during his first run at the Republican nomination. I totally concede I bought into the feel good vibe of the Obama campaign. He was offering hope and change and that was a message that resonated with me. He was the American dream come true. He made history and I was proud to be a part of it. Even with all of that going for him I still hadn't ruled out McCain. I had never voted anything but Republican in all my elections. I found myself embarrassed for my 2004 vote supporting Bush and my loyalty was battling my conscience. The straw that broke the camel's back for me in 2008 was the nomination of Palin. It was gimmicky and it wasn't leadership. Even most of the insiders, those responsible for the nomination, have admitted it. That's how that one went down.

This election, however, is completely different. This one seems far less complicated and common ground seems more obtainable than four years ago. McCain wasn't W. Bush and he was happy to let us know that. He had clear differences with Bush and we could see them. So we all went our own ways and some of us voted out of character for many reasons that don't usually play a role in elections. This year the election is very traditional. The incumbent tells us he is doing the best he can and the next four years will be even better under his next term. The challenger points out the flaws of the President and tries to convince us he (not to be sexist but I'll start using he/she when a woman wins a primary - which might be sooner rather than later) is a better option.

So let's examine where we are at this moment. Let's throw out all the nonsense about the demise and doom of our country if Obama wins again. We will survive. We will survive if Romney wins. We will survive if either of the Vice Presidents have to take over. Harboring this type of sentiment is ignorant to the history of this nation and the people that have made it what it is. Every election cycle someone wins and someone loses and we plug along.

A legitimate knock against Obama is he hasn't laid out a clear plan for his next term. Even though I concede this is a valid and a worthy critique, we still pretty much know what to expect. The dude is pretty moderate and tries very hard to be bipartisan but hasn't met a willing partner. He's even pissed off his base because they think he's weak because he doesn't just ram things through and still tries to work with Republicans. Like him or not, agree with him or not, you pretty much know what is in store the next four years.

When turning to examine what Romney says he is offering it seems pretty clear he's bringing back the W. Bush policies. He was asked point blank how he's different from W. Bush during the last debate. He seemed so happy to answer and I was so happy to hear his answer. His difference, the only one he mentioned: China. He'll come in and wave his magic underwear wand and fix China and all their evilness. That was it, one thing. And why would it be any different? Romney has almost all of the neo-cons (Dan Senor of all people) that advised W. Bush during his eight years advising him and his campaign now. They will certainly be his advisers if he wins. He believes in trickle down economics. He believes in lowering taxes (though not actually "cutting" them) and raising our military budget. He believes we should overturn Roe V. Wade. He believes we should arm rebels in Syria. He believes we should "get tough" with Iran. How is this any different than if we re-elected W. Bush?

This is what gets me, the divergence at this point where we should have common ground. Didn't we all kind of agree W. Bush wasn't good for us? Then how is it half of our country can, with such fervor, be willing to go that direction again? You hate Obama that much? You live in that much fear and darkness? I'm not a Democrat. I think Obama has flaws. I don't have a lot of faith in the Democrats ability to govern. Having said all of that, these last four years haven't been worse than W. Bush's run. The Stock Market was half of what it was when Obama took office. Bin Laden was on the loose. Millions of children and needy people went without decent medical service and when they did require attention they received it at the most expensive facility possible at our expense anyway. We are no longer in a war in Iraq. We are ending the war in Afghanistan. Our auto industry was successfully bailed out, something I was against at the time (and still might be but at least I acknowledge it did work). The S&P and NASDAQ indexes are off the charts. Our standing on the global stage is more credible and we are liked more than we were four years ago (you can say this isn't important but it is). He appointed the first Latino Cabinet member and then went on to appoint another one, a female at that. He appointed the first Latino to the Supreme Court, again a female. He's never pulled anything out of his sleeve and he's only done what he said he would do all along, sometimes less but never more.

I don't hate Mitt Romney. I'm not going to be crushed if he wins. I probably won't even notice the difference between the two in my personal life. I think he's probably a very good man and it seems like he has an awesome family. But I can't be responsible for voting for policies I know have already failed. Facts matter. They even have them in nice little graphs so you don't have to think too hard. The part where everything is going down, and fast, is Bush policy. The part where the bleeding stops and eventually begins to head upward in the right direction is Obama. Facts. I'm not in the tank for Obama. If the truth be known I'd seriously take Gary Johnson over either of these two guys and be very happy about it. However, that's not the reality we face. When it comes to Obama and Romney I'm going with the evidence between what I've seen and experienced to not work and what I've seen and experienced to work better than how it was when it sucked.

I like both men personally. I think they're both American citizens. I think they both are good family men. I think they are both shining examples of success. I'm not voting based on emotion. I'm informed. I'm not imposing my will on others. I'm not asking for Amendments to The Constitution. I'm not angry. I not afraid. I'm not inclined to think our country will fail if the guy I vote for loses. I'm making a sincere effort to vote for the best for this country. I've encouraged many (maybe too many) conversations about politics and this election and brought many intelligent, respected, well liked, and very normal people to the table to present their views. The evidence has all been laid out before you. Simply look at the amount of quality people that have voiced support for Obama on my Facebook wall through numerous comments about many different political philosophies. By no means am I suggesting people that support Romney aren't quality people or haven't contributed in very meaningful ways to the discussion. I'm only pointing to the numbers. Personally I have people that I are my favorites on the medium and I follow their activities on Facebook because they have captured my attention. Almost every single one, if not all, of those people that I admire, that I look toward and up to for their perspective, that I think are truly smarter than me, are all voting for Obama. Does that mean anything? Have we all been duped?

I'm not trying to divide; I'm trying to unite. Let's get together and agree we know how this worked out the last time we went with W. Bush's policies. Let's agree that things have gotten better since Obama took over. Let's agree that we are part of the problem and our Congressmen and women are extensions of us and our lack of desire to compromise with one another. Let's agree that the reason we get lied to is because we don't really care about facts. Let's agree that it won't get any better until we decide to take our role seriously. Let's agree that we have way more in common than we are lead to believe. Let's agree that we all know the other person is moral and decent and shares values with us. Let's agree to look to those that seem the most in the know of those that we do know. Let's agree that we all don't know everything about everything and we have to go with those that demonstrate the best reasoning skills. Let's agree to not identify with anything other than the common good of all our citizens.

Warning Labels

If we feel the need to warn people of these dangers ....

..... then I'm not sure why we are debating whether or not to warn them about the contents of the food they eat.

What A Fool Believes

I love when someone starts a sentence in this fashion .... "I would like to believe..."

It's like it triggers an automatic shutdown mode to my listening system. In my constant quest to become the most complete person I can be I've decided to confront my phobia of this phrase and simply embrace it. 

Here goes...

I would like to believe the more I push down on the gas pedal the better gas mileage I get.

I would like to believe photos of me make me look fat.

I would like to believe Fox News is some type of elaborate Colbert Report prank.

I would like to believe if really rich people got their hands on money they wouldn't take it offshore and would invest it in the country that allowed them to acquire it.

I would like to believe people are inherently evil and can't possibly be good unless some type of divine intervention takes place.

I would like to believe my Xbox won't red ring until the next generation gaming console is released.

I would like to believe there is a woman out there that really, truly, at every level gets me and would still have sex with me.

I would like to believe in a country of 300 plus million people we would have a hard time deciding on who we are voting for because they are both so good. 

I would like to believe I choose what I would like to believe.

I would like to believe when I die I don't really die and actually get to live for eternity and hang out with everyone I ever knew.

I would like to believe when something bad happens it really only happens for some incredibly mysterious reason that will ultimately lead to something that will bring me gigantic amounts of joy.

I would like to believe it will soon be discovered Big Macs lower the chances of heart disease.

I would like to believe people see me post links to my blog and actually click on the link.

I would like to believe private industries will naturally do the right thing and never need regulation or oversight.

I would like to believe the world is black and white and the answers are always crystal clear.

I would like to believe there was an instruction booklet for life that is infallible.

I would like to believe when I look down and see my fly unzipped that it just occurred moments before I discovered it.

I would like to believe when people say "field gold" to describe a football traveling through the goalposts that I'm just hearing them wrong.

I would like to believe every single network and news organization are colluding together to dumb down the country except for the one channel I watch.

I would like to believe when I find a hair in my food that it was probably just mine.

I would like to believe there could be one awesome final little quip to offer that would allow this piece to wrap up perfectly. 

Captain's Log

Report #37-25652

The life form that controls other life forms on the planet is an ape prototype. This specific ape has developed oral communication with other like apes. The crew has affectionately named the creatures Gabby Gorillas. There are approximately 7 billion living Gabbys on the planet. They aren't the most populous creature on the planet by any stretch.

There are other ape creatures on the planet but they broke from the evolutionary chain of the Gabby about five million years ago. The Gabby began to look like the modern day Gabby about 200,000 years ago and within the last 50,000 years they haven't changed too much in their behavioral traits. The Gabby still look a lot like their other ape relatives but they have less hair and an upright posture. One particular point of interest is the fact many of the Gabby (almost all except for the ones that actually study their origins) deny any kinship with the other apes. It's a complicated phenomenon that will be addressed in later reports. Needless to say, this has created a bit of comic relief to the crew.

At some point the Gabby developed language. We have searched the databases on the planet and can not locate an exact moment this occurred. Most Gabbys don't spend any time thinking about this feature, no more than a bird thinks about why it can fly. However, there are some very intelligent Gabby that are trained in this topic and even they can't come to agreement on the timing of this skill. The range varies anywhere between 2.5 million years to as recently as 100,000 years when it comes to the possible date of language acquisition. It appears language was developed, or at least the groundwork was laid, when the intelligent ape, the Gabby, began to understand the concept of shared intentionality. When they began to cooperate with each other to achieve shared goals their brains began to grow. The area of the Gabby brain where language is located is in later evolved parts of the brain that aren't shared with other animals on the planet.

It wasn't until just a few thousand years ago that Gabby learned how to domesticate plants and animals and learn the trait of agriculture. Once this was discovered the population of the Gabby grew exponentially. Their population grew from the thousands to the millions and then recently into the billions. They went from the middle of the food chain to the top in a very short time. Gabbys don't appear to be naturally hostile to one another but they do kill their own from time to time for a variety of reasons (mostly perceived threats of some type). For the most part they agree to work together and live in communities with one another.

The Gabby live all over their planet. Even though they have the technology to communicate with Gabbys from all over their world, they mostly chose to interact with Gabbys in their surrounding environment. They have created imaginary lines they have agreed upon that define their tribes. These boundaries are mostly based on the formation of the rocks on their planet that float on water. Based on the birth place of the Gabby (with very rare exceptions) the tribe is determined. From time to time the Gabby factions will go to battle with one another. However, they usually stop fighting before the losing tribe is made extinct and they often negotiate during times of war. It's very hard to locate times of total harmony, without some type of tribal conflict occurring, in the history of the Gabby. Remarkably, they still maintain a sense of direction and have managed to somehow overcome this trait and generally work together on most shared intentions.

More detailed reports to follow on specific topics in the near future.

The Electoral College Is For Snobs

In the 2008 Presidential election Barack Obama received about 69 and a half million popular votes (roughly 53%). John McCain received nearly 60 million popular votes (roughly 46%). The tally for the electoral college was Obama 365 and McCain 173. No one considered it a very close race.

The election of 2012 seems very close. The country is divided nearly down the middle when it comes to popular votes. If you take the average of the most respected polls it appears Obama is coming in at 51% and Romney at 48% when it comes to the popular tally.

If we look at the electoral map of 2012 we can start by locking up all but about 8 to 10 states. These states are known as the "swing states". Michigan and Pennsylvania make up two of the ten swing states and it appears Obama has pretty much solidified those states as of now. That really leaves only about eight states where the election will be decided. These states are Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. Even though North Carolina is still considered a "toss up", it appears Romney is probably going to carry it. That leaves us now with seven states that will actually decide the election.

If we examine the electoral map considering only seven states aren't decided yet then the tally begins with Obama at 237 and Romney at 206 electoral votes. The magic number is 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Obama is currently leading in all seven of the remaining "swing states". If Obama manages to carry Florida again (something easier said than done but he is currently leading in the state) that puts him at 266 electoral votes. It would be all but over at that point. If Obama happens to win Ohio, worth 18 votes, that would place him at 255 electoral votes. It would be hard for Romney to win the necessary states at that point, but not impossible. If Romney manages to win Ohio and Florida but no other states he would lose to Obama 285 to 253 in the electoral tally. If Romney was to sweep all of the swing states he would win 301 to 237. If Obama was to sweep all of the swing states he would win 328 to 206. I mention this again, Obama currently leads in all seven swing states.

I authored a piece right before the conventions and mentioned the whirlwind of politics that we are going to encounter prior to November 6th. We're still eight weeks out and it seems like a major news story breaks every day. It is certainly a possibility that something catastrophic could happen that could sink the Obama campaign, however, this doesn't seem very likely. What seems more likely, at least if we judge by the last couple of weeks, is Romney will continue to struggle and Obama will hone in on his message aimed at the people who will decide this election.

Another facet to consider is the internal war that is taking place within the Republican Party. If it becomes obvious that Obama is going to win the election then it won't surprise me at all to see some of the remaining moderate Republicans start to position themselves for the 2016 race. As soon as some in the party start to distance themselves from this election then the greater the chance some of the swing states will simply vote for the apparent winner. After all, no one likes to vote for a loser. The possibility of Romney winning in a landslide is practically nil. The probability of Obama winning in a landslide is a lot higher, even if he wins by less than he did in 2008. If Romney loses the electoral vote by triple digits that isn't going to be considered a close race by history.

I am not trying to spin this to my liking; I'm simply making observations about political polling numbers. What really jumps out at me is the amount of people that have no understanding of the electoral college at any level. The same people that loved the idea of the electoral college when W. Bush beat Gore will hate it if Romney gets spanked. I've been watching in anticipation to see when some of the smarter Republicans are going to see the writing on the wall when it comes to this election. Perhaps two months out is too much to expect but I think I can safely assume some of them will make themselves known after the debates are settled.

The only chance Romney has of winning this election is some gigantic event that rocks the citizenry and shakes their trust in Obama or some miracle turn around in campaign strategy when it comes to the swing states. Barring any of that I can seriously see Obama winning this election quite handily, at least as far as the electoral college is concerned. When some Republicans start to see things the way I see them then this thing could get really interesting.

I don't author this simply so I can say "I told you so" (even though I certainly will) when Obama wins. I write this to paint a clearer picture for those that don't get all of the intricacies and nuance of a general election. I write this to gain credibility for future conversations about similar topics. I write this to demonstrate how completely clueless some on the right happen to be when they truly believe their candidate is going to win. If it turns out I'm wrong then I'll be the first to admit it.

Living Life In Peace

Imagine you were born in another part of the world, a part of the world that practiced a different religion than Christianity. More than likely you would believe in all of the same things these people believe in. Since it's easy to imagine what you would think if you were a Christian and people posted anti-Muslim photos, I thought it would be a good exercise to put the shoe on the other foot.

What would you think if you had been raised to think Christians were evil and saw these photos?

Are You Gonna Go My Way?

I happened to be in need of gas in the very early morning hours a few days ago. It was somewhere between four and five a.m. and it was still dark outside. As I approached the intersection I became confused by the lone car stopped at the light in the opposite direction.

This intersection is souped up; it has a minimum of one lane designated for left turns in every direction. I planned on going straight through the intersection and then turning left into the gas station on the corner. However, it became apparent the car across the street was in the lane I was headed toward. It was stopped at the light but it was facing my direction and it was in the wrong lane, my lane.

It's funny how quick you can actually assess a situation when need be. Time seemed to slow down, way down, as I weighed all my options. My biggest fear was the other driver was intoxicated and my trying to predict their next move seemed risky. I decided I would turn left and enter the gas station from a different direction. I waited in the left turn lane for my light to turn green. The car across the street waited in the wrong lane for its light to turn green. I just wasn't sure which direction the car intended on going.

My light switched and I eased out, waiting to see what the other car was going to do. The car didn't move and I punched it and cleared the intersection with no incident. I pulled into the gas station and was now fairly close to the mystery vehicle. It was dark but I could make out the driver was a young, at least younger than me, woman. She just sat and stared at the light. I filled up my tank with gas, an event that took several minutes. The woman was still waiting at the light when I was tightening the cap on my tank and preparing to leave the station.

I now began to wonder what I was going to do. The easiest and way more convenient way to head home was to turn left at the intersection the woman was waiting in. It all seemed pretty harmless, as far as her being intoxicated, at this point. I had decided she was simply confused and was in the wrong lane. My only real apprehension was pulling up to her, in the correct turn lane, and then having another vehicle enter the intersection and want to get through in our direction. I hadn't made up my mind if I was just going to drive up next to her, mostly for entertainment purposes at this point, or play it safe and exit the other direction and drive a block out of the way simply to play it safe. As I pondered my new options I noticed the mystery vehicle was going in reverse. The woman backed up a few feet and then switched over two lanes to turn right at the light. I pulled out, the way I originally intended, and stopped at the light that had the baffled the woman. When my left turn light turned green I pulled out and noticed the mystery vehicle heading to the intersection after she had gone down the extra block and made the first available U-turn.

It seems pretty safe to assume the lady simply got confused and didn't realize she was in the wrong lane, thus never triggering the signal. However, that's not her reality at all. In her mind that light doesn't work. She's sure of it. She has proof of it. She has firsthand knowledge of it. If she's anything like most of us she'll probably tell others about the broken left turn light at that intersection. And if her friends are like most of our friends then they'll probably razz her for not running the light when it was discovered it was malfunctioning. She and I shared a close proximity in time/space on that morning and our experience and understanding of that moment are certainly not the same. Our realities, as it pertains to that specific incident, are different.

For that woman the "truth" about reality is entirely different than my "truth" about reality. For as long as we both live and for as long as we recollect that moment, that reality will remain two different "truths" to each of us (and now the people we've shared this story with). Our senses fool us all of the time, yet we still value our own personal experiences more than any other. Seeing is believing. There is no deeper message; it was mostly just a story with a simple observation.

A Simple Plan

I'm not a fan of the two party system we have in America. It's an impossible formula if we truly aim to have representation for the average citizen. However, as long we continue with this system then we have to do the best with what we have.

When the popular vote is tallied up after the presidential election in November I suspect it will be fairly close. When the electoral votes are tallied up I suspect, barring some unforeseen circumstance, Obama will win quite handily. His campaign strategy is incredibly solid and he's winning in the majority, if not all, of the key swing states.

I mention this not really to praise Obama and his team, but to encourage you to consider what could happen if this particular candidate (Obama) wasn't so skilled. It would be nice to believe the American people would just choose the "best" candidate in the long run but I think that's wishful thinking and dangerous. They are going to choose Obama again because he understood very well how to resonate with the people he needed to connect to in the states where it mattered the most. Even though I praised the Romney team every step of the way through the tumultuous (four u's in that word) primary season, I've been amazed how poorly his team has lead him in the general election. I'm assuming their strategy ended up being "let's just totally rally our base and pray they turn out in enough numbers to win" and that seems a huge mistake to me. Independents decide presidential elections. Throw in the fact that independents are a growing group and it seems foolish to completely ignore them.

Consider what reality would be like if the talented people that call the shots for the Obama team were in control of the Romney team and the morons that head the Romney campaign were leading the Obama team (Socrates would argue this just isn't a possibility but appease me). In a little less than two months time the leadership of this great nation could be in the hands of some very scary people. People that deny facts, cast shadows, and point blank lie without batting an eye could have the power to drag us right back to the dark ages in this alternate reality. And even if it doesn't happen this year, are you cool with it happening four years from now? Are you willing to roll the dice and just hope the best campaign team gets the job done for the "good guys"? I'm not.

If we're going to have a two party system then we all should feel obligated to make those two parties the best they can be, regardless of our particular political persuasion. Since my tenure on the social media scene I've been labeled a RINO, a liberal, an Obama lover, confused, and much worse because those on the right hate the fact that I "only pick on them". I expose the tactics and the attitude of those on the fringe right because they have made it impossible for this two party system to have even a slight chance of working for us. I agree with more policies of those on the right than I do of those on the left. However, the fringe right that has hijacked the GOP makes it impossible for me to align with them. They're embarrassing and they're foolish. An alarming amount of them still believe our President was born in Kenya, they deny climate change, they sign pledges to never raise taxes prior to taking their oath to uphold the Constitution, they deny science when it works against them, they don't understand national energy policies, they are willing to accept lies if they are things they want to hear. I don't mention these things to simply hate on this reality; I harp on them so we can make reality better.

We all have our own style. My style is to get your attention and hope enough of you will sustain interest in the message. And to be very honest with you, the group of people that I have attracted is very humbling to me. My plan all along (and I've mentioned this before) was to slowly collect an army of intelligent people to impact the world in the most positive way possible. If all of these solid people are simply willingly to share their ideas and bounce them off of one another then how could that not influence others in a meaningful way?

I'm the first to admit I have very few answers on how to fix some of our real problems. However, I feel fairly confident in my abilities to comprehend how we tick and how we must tick in order to achieve great things together. I'm under no delusion that I will change the mind of those that have no interest in having their minds changed, but I'm hopeful that enough of you will find a way to use your style to impact others for the better.

The latest political story to emerge upon us was Romney's blunder about attacking Obama prematurely and unnecessarily in regard to the death of a US Ambassador in Egypt. Romney was just wrong at so many levels. What became very obvious was those who were too ignorant to even understand the grave error committed by the GOP candidate. I'm sure we already all knew who those people were but they felt obligated to confirm it once again by posting idiotic, uninformed, and childish comments on social mediums. Those people are trying to influence others when they make those posts. It might seem polite and convenient to ignore those posts but it also seems a tad dangerous.

I find it very encouraging that many conservative voices came out and condemned Romney's error. Again, not because I relish mistakes by Republicans, it's because I know we don't stand a chance if we don't acknowledge our mistakes and try to learn from them. This is one of the first times, if not the only one, where the main stream Republicans have stepped up and confronted their Tea Party hijackers.

The Washington Post, winner of tons of Pulitzer Prizes and political insider newspaper, stated this move by Romney "discredited" his campaign. Peggy Noonan, a total right wing journalist, author, and speech writer for Reagan, spoke negatively on Fox News about Romney's comments. John Sununu even thought Romney "should have waited" to say anything. Peter King of all people came down against Romney.

We can sit back and cross our fingers and hope the Republicans extinguish their pesky little fringe fire or we can help those on the right battle the flames before the entire country goes up in smoke. I authored a piece a couple weeks back predicting the whirlwind of political stories and events that will bombard us in the next few weeks. I suspect there will be plenty more opportunities for those on the right to step up and try to gain credibility on the sanity front over the next two months. We must find a way to make it acceptable and comfortable for those on the right who are willing to call out their own. We have to get back on solid footing where we agree to see reality for what it is and then compromise through our different approaches to making life better.

More Potpourri

Whenever I park anywhere I always park (if at all possible) in a spot that reduces the likelihood of getting my vehicle dinged in any way. In a lot of parking places you find your vehicle vulnerable in three places: the left and right sides and the front. If I can park a little further away but feel safe about cutting my percentages by a third or even two thirds of getting banged up by something else then it's totally worth it to me. And it's not even because I'm that much of a freak about my vehicle; it's simply an obsession with me mentally because it just makes so much sense. I'm weird like that. Even if you don't do it to the level I do, you still do it to some degree when you opt to not park next to some torn up old clunker.

I'm not a huge fan of fast food. It's not that I'm a health freak or anything (isn't that obvious?), it's just I really like food and fast food doesn't taste that good to me. In fact, the older I get the more and more I find it kind of creepy. Anyway, I discovered Del Taco's Del Carbon tacos. Wow! Very tasty and authentic.

Usually the title of the particular piece I've authored is kind of an inside joke with myself. This one isn't.

I work with this guy that was talking about his latest adventure to a third world country. This dude is a few years older than me (which is pretty rare where I work) and I really dig him. He's kind of a modern day hippie like myself except it's way more obvious on him. He's had a real job and worked hard for a living and he understands how easy and good he has it in his current employment and he rolls with the punches with the best of them because of this attitude. He's super friendly and likable and when he's telling these outrageous stories about his journeys in these various countries you know he's telling the truth because that's how he really lives life. When he was done with an incredible story I said, "Man, I think I would be afraid to be in a third world country in this day and time." He replied with, "Yeah, fear makes a lot of people do a lot of different things." I really think I would now be totally willing to go to a third world country simply by grasping exactly what he was saying. I mean, I already understand that idea very well and point it out in others all of the time, but in this case my shadow got the best of me. Some one plan a trip.

The NFL replacement referees are lower division college refs, officials in smaller arena leagues, and one of them actually reffed in the Lingerie League. Seems wild to me that a business, the NFL, that makes billions can't find a way to hammer out some agreement just to avoid damaging their own business. But what do I know?

I don't think randomness exists in the universe. Einstein said, "God does not play dice with the universe." Things do exactly what they were supposed to do. There is no magical realm of randomness that comes into play. There is only one possible outcome to any set of events. We can predict the likelihood of that one outcome, but it's not random at all. We just don't know all of the millions of pieces of information that would be required to know that one outcome in advance in most situations.

I love when it starts getting dark earlier. It makes the entire 24 hour day seem longer to me.

After I officially went "over the hill" I began to notice signs of my age. My eyesight, which was always very good, is starting to fade. I can't focus in on things as quickly as I once could. My muscles get tight and cramp way more often than when I was younger. But the one thing that bothers me the most is the sensor mechanism  decline of the thing that tells me I need to pee. I used to be able to feel one coming on, but not anymore. I can be doing anything and all is good and then two seconds later I have to pee my pants and sprint to the bathroom. I hate that.

I feel more in synch with my role in the universe than any other point in my life.

Most of the time I ferment an idea for a blog piece for several weeks. Many of the ideas just don't develop and don't make the cut. When I write pieces it feels more like a chore than an enjoyable experience. I feel a duty to author them.

I think one area that will drastically change in the next few years is advertising. The model being used now has been in existence for a long time and the data collected isn't nearly as relevant as it used to be. Technology has made it possible for people to avoid almost all types of advertisement wherever it may try to intrude. Advertising tries to force information onto people. However, I think in the future advertisement will find a way to draw people in.

This last month Democrats donated 100 plus million to the Obama campaign and Republicans donated 100 plus million to the Romney campaign. Are we really that broke if we're donating that much money in a month for the "lesser of two evils"?

It's believed dolphins were a dog type animal that ended up going back into the ocean.

I'm honestly better off than I was four years ago. However, I hate that we are so shallow that this is how we judge our reality. We are a strange creature.