The election of 2012 seems very close. The country is divided nearly down the middle when it comes to popular votes. If you take the average of the most respected polls it appears Obama is coming in at 51% and Romney at 48% when it comes to the popular tally.
If we look at the electoral map of 2012 we can start by locking up all but about 8 to 10 states. These states are known as the "swing states". Michigan and Pennsylvania make up two of the ten swing states and it appears Obama has pretty much solidified those states as of now. That really leaves only about eight states where the election will be decided. These states are Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. Even though North Carolina is still considered a "toss up", it appears Romney is probably going to carry it. That leaves us now with seven states that will actually decide the election.
If we examine the electoral map considering only seven states aren't decided yet then the tally begins with Obama at 237 and Romney at 206 electoral votes. The magic number is 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Obama is currently leading in all seven of the remaining "swing states". If Obama manages to carry Florida again (something easier said than done but he is currently leading in the state) that puts him at 266 electoral votes. It would be all but over at that point. If Obama happens to win Ohio, worth 18 votes, that would place him at 255 electoral votes. It would be hard for Romney to win the necessary states at that point, but not impossible. If Romney manages to win Ohio and Florida but no other states he would lose to Obama 285 to 253 in the electoral tally. If Romney was to sweep all of the swing states he would win 301 to 237. If Obama was to sweep all of the swing states he would win 328 to 206. I mention this again, Obama currently leads in all seven swing states.
I authored a piece right before the conventions and mentioned the whirlwind of politics that we are going to encounter prior to November 6th. We're still eight weeks out and it seems like a major news story breaks every day. It is certainly a possibility that something catastrophic could happen that could sink the Obama campaign, however, this doesn't seem very likely. What seems more likely, at least if we judge by the last couple of weeks, is Romney will continue to struggle and Obama will hone in on his message aimed at the people who will decide this election.
Another facet to consider is the internal war that is taking place within the Republican Party. If it becomes obvious that Obama is going to win the election then it won't surprise me at all to see some of the remaining moderate Republicans start to position themselves for the 2016 race. As soon as some in the party start to distance themselves from this election then the greater the chance some of the swing states will simply vote for the apparent winner. After all, no one likes to vote for a loser. The possibility of Romney winning in a landslide is practically nil. The probability of Obama winning in a landslide is a lot higher, even if he wins by less than he did in 2008. If Romney loses the electoral vote by triple digits that isn't going to be considered a close race by history.
I am not trying to spin this to my liking; I'm simply making observations about political polling numbers. What really jumps out at me is the amount of people that have no understanding of the electoral college at any level. The same people that loved the idea of the electoral college when W. Bush beat Gore will hate it if Romney gets spanked. I've been watching in anticipation to see when some of the smarter Republicans are going to see the writing on the wall when it comes to this election. Perhaps two months out is too much to expect but I think I can safely assume some of them will make themselves known after the debates are settled.
The only chance Romney has of winning this election is some gigantic event that rocks the citizenry and shakes their trust in Obama or some miracle turn around in campaign strategy when it comes to the swing states. Barring any of that I can seriously see Obama winning this election quite handily, at least as far as the electoral college is concerned. When some Republicans start to see things the way I see them then this thing could get really interesting.
I don't author this simply so I can say "I told you so" (even though I certainly will) when Obama wins. I write this to paint a clearer picture for those that don't get all of the intricacies and nuance of a general election. I write this to gain credibility for future conversations about similar topics. I write this to demonstrate how completely clueless some on the right happen to be when they truly believe their candidate is going to win. If it turns out I'm wrong then I'll be the first to admit it.
No comments:
Post a Comment