Super Tuesday is nearly upon us and it would seem that things should be fairly clear as to who will win the GOP nomination to challenge Obama in November once this event takes place. There are really only two possibilities, at least in my mind, about how we will view the results come Wednesday morning. More than likely (and I'll be the first to admit this cycle is very nontraditional and hard to predict at the micro level, not so much at the macro level) Romney will continue to do what he has done, rack up the majority of the delegates. This Tuesday a huge amount of delegates are at stake, way more than any event thus far. That's what makes it Super. Santorum will have to perform amazingly well to make any of us feel like he really has a chance to beat Romney. I'm not ruling it out, just saying it doesn't seem like he can realistically do what he needs to do to change the mathematics of it all. If Santorum manages to pull it off then things will be more clear, we would know we seriously have ourselves a two man race, something we've longed for all along but something that never really materialized. However, if Santorum doesn't make these huge gains after Tuesday then most people will be able to accept Romney as the inevitable candidate at that point. There will be dissenters, there have been all along, but it won't matter as much.
Seems like a good time to go over some of the biggest strategery errors in the Republican race.
The first mistake was made by Tim Pawlenty and his team. They played by the old, proverbial "book" and this wasn't the year to do that. They completed in Iowa, didn't do well, and bowed out way too early. He certainly would have gotten his fifteen minutes of fame if he would have just hung around, everyone else did. It seems apparent there is a large chunk of the Republican party, in fact the majority of them, that really don't want Romney. However, they honestly weren't given any alternative. Maybe he would have faded just like the rest, it's very possible, but he definitely got out of the race too early. Blunder number one of the race for me.
A lot went on as far as jockeying for the positions, excluding Romney at number one, for several months. However, there were no huge blunders that affected the course of the race. Naturally, the field dwindled but that's just how it has to go. It's crazy it is still four large at this point in the game. But once it started to narrow the race heated up to try to be the "not Romney" guy. The first real guy to emerge, after everyone's fifteen minutes faded, was Newt. It seemed Romney had won the first two contests and was on a roll. Then Newt stepped up in South Carolina and said, "I'm you're man", to a large group that wants to vote for someone they believe might be able to beat Obama but not be Mitt Romney.
It was always a long shot for Gingrich to really pull it off but it is undeniable he got himself in a position to control his own destiny. That's considered an achievement in my book. Newt's inevitable mistake was his ego. He believed people were flocking to him because of some "fundamental" message he was delivering. That's just not the reality of it. Simply using the principles of Occam's Razor, it would seem more likely it was just good timing for Newt when his opportunity surfaced. Just prior to the South Carolina primary, a Southern state that favors Gingrich, Iowa told us Santorum actually won their earlier contest. Gingrich probably wins South Carolina without this news, but it really makes it easier to rally people to come out and support his non Romney campaign.
Then the ego just took over. He believed we were at a place in time where his voting base was looking for "grand" ideas and "deep thinking" people with knowledge of history and ties to Ronald Reagan. He was so wrong. They just wanted him to not say dumb things that would make them believe he could possibly defeat our current President. They liked that he was bucking the system by not running attack ads. They liked that he was "smarter" than Obama. Then he started changing their minds. He railed on Romney for running negative ads and then did just that when he got his hands on some money. He had a moment, where he was in the lead, where he had serious financial backing, where he had momentum, and he employed the wrong tactic. He took that moment and did nothing with it, in fact his planned worked against him and he lost Florida, the next contest, convincingly. He's never been a serious contender since. And if he sincerely wanted someone to beat Romney, someone that is closer to his views and way of approaching the world, then he should have bowed out and let his supporters gravitate toward Santorum. Again, his ego prevents all of this.
Next, chronologically, comes Romney. For quite some time I have said how impressed I was with his campaign team. They have handled the grueling process pretty well. If this were any other "ordinary" election cycle they would have had this thing wrapped up months ago. It's not their fault it isn't and they've done remarkably well adapting to a very tumultuous race and always been at, or very very near, the top. And more than likely come Wednesday morning they will finally sow some seeds of their disciplined and lengthy harvest. At some point the numbers will actually mean something (this is the Republican primary, they think college is for snobs, deny climate change, vote to take away their own entitlements they use more than anyone else in the country, think the federal government should control states water rights, and creationism should be taught equally with evolution) even to this bunch.
Having given Romney and his team that praise, I still find fault in his inability to seem normal. This certainly isn't the first time we've seen this: Gore, Kerry, McCain to name some recent ones. At some point the weight of the entire ordeal, the pressure from all angles, the advice about what and what not to say coming in twenty four hours a day, seven days a week changes these people, it must. W. Bush and Clinton were performers, people liked them when they were around them. They charmed people. They had the ability to seem like they were cool dudes we could hang out and have a beer with. In reality we aren't anything like these guys. They both were governors. One owned a major league baseball team. These guys were rich and don't lead the lives we do. But it seemed like they could relate, even if it was just an act. Romney doesn't have this talent so perhaps I'm being too hard when I label it a mistake.
The reality of the situation is Mitt Romney is very rich. He has always enjoyed money and we can't envision him ever worrying about paying the bills a day in his life. He has photos of him and a bunch of guys all wearing suits with money draped from him, coming out of his pockets, his belt line, pockets in his suit. I don't know one of my friends or family that have ever taken a picture like this. Most people don't. The problem Romney makes is he is trying too hard to seem like one of the guys and we know he isn't. Just give it up. You can't talk about the size of trees and the color of grass to convince us you're one of us, it's kind of insulting at some point. So this quality isn't on your resume, deal with it. There are a lot of things I'm sure you're good at, there are a lot things on the table that are legitimate issues you could address, there is an amazing climate for the incumbent to lose, yet you have spent months trying to seem down to Earth. Who cares at this point? People have made up their minds about your richness, Mitt. They only hold it against you when you try so hard to convince them you're not rich and you're just like them. If this wasn't even an issue anymore, it should have been dealt with months ago, then things like saying, "I'm not a big fan of NASCAR but I do have friends that own teams," wouldn't be viewed as negative.
Why didn't his team just say to him, "Look, we tried to convince them you're one of them but they just don't believe it. So now we just let you be you. You do have money. You have been successful at many things. You have a good family. You have been a successful governor. Just be who you are." This would have been settled months ago with some good advice. Then when he makes that exact same comment amount having friends that own NASCAR teams it could actually work for him, people like rich people if they're cool. Knowing people that own NASCAR teams is pretty cool to most people. Instead, because he and his team insist on playing this no win game of trying to be "normal", these comments work against them. I genuinely think Romney's campaign shot callers have been impressive over the long haul, they are disciplined and don't make unnecessary mistakes for the most part. That's why this long continual mistake about trying to fit this square peg into a round hole theater is puzzling, it's just out of character for this group that rarely makes blunders.
Doesn't the above picture explain a lot?
The next huge gaffe to occur during the GOP primary race belongs to Rick Santorum. As I mentioned earlier about Gingrich, obtaining a position of controlling your own destiny is a worthy feat. Santorum achieved this pinnacle. It is hard to deny that Rick had everything going his way and had picked up huge momentum at a very crucial time. He managed to win three primary contests in one night when no one saw it coming. If Santorum would have actually sustained his position at the top after winning this surprise trifecta then I certainly would have called that moment, the moment where Romney's team got a little sloppy and didn't invest enough time and money to at least win one of those primaries on that night, the most critical and costly mistake made by anyone during the cycle. However, it appears Romney overcame that setback and managed to get the train back on the rails. Not because of anything he did, but mostly because of what Rick Santorum decided to do.
Instead of just assuring the 40 to 50 percent of the Republican primary voters that want to vote for someone that can beat Obama and not be named Mitt, Rick decided to make social issues his top stumping priority and it, most likely, lead to his demise. Santorum had a legitimate chance to win Michigan (Romney's "real" home state - that it's described that way in the media is absolutely hilarious - a guy that can't shake the deserved label of a flip flopper has five home states and Michigan is the "real" one - that says it all). I can't say for certain that would have been a death blow to Romney's hopes but it would have been damaging and would have catapulted Rick going into Super Tuesday. It would have given him a real possibility to cut into Romney's delegate lead.
However, Santorum decided he would double down and try to get "more" Tea Party backing. The guy is pretty much an ideal candidate for the Tea Party and he doesn't need to prove it any further. But he thought he did, obviously. Instead of talking about relevant issues when he arrived on the national scene, leading most reputable polls, he opted to talk about issues that were important forty years ago. He didn't choose to boast of hope and a brighter future, he preached doom and literally said America would lose its "essence" if Obama were to be reelected. He said in a nationally televised debate in 2012, while he was the favorite to win the nomination, sex should only occur for the purposes of procreation. Just like Newt, Rick only needed to not freak out. In the end the scorpion is just a scorpion.
I don't really think Dr. Paul ever had a chance of winning the nomination but with a different strategy it might have been different. Paul's current strategy is the gather up all the "unbound" votes and show up at the convention and have David Copperfield announce him as the magical winner of the Republican race. If I were on the Paul campaign squad I would have offered a dissimilar tactic. Paul's biggest Achilles with the "conservatives" is his foreign policy approach. The other three grapefruits want to bomb Iran and Paul is the banana of the bunch. He believes we should disengage in our occupancy approach and shut down military bases all around the globe, bringing our troops home and saving us trillions of dollars. Ironically, this message resonates with the soldiers and young people. But it is sacrilege to make such comments and win a Republican primary.
This is where I would have advised Paul to not make those remarks at the debates. I would have told him to say he would bomb Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan all at the same time. And while everyone was looking at the mushroom cloud hovering over the Middle East we would bomb North Korea. Lastly we would infiltrate Kenya and expose the secret plan to take over America. Then I would have Paul wink at the camera (the secret code to the troops and youth that he is just saying what the "base" wants to hear to win and he really has no intention of upholding any of his promises, like the other candidates do) and smile.
Lastly, I would like to point toward the moderates in the Republican Party for their mistake in this election: apathy. They have allowed their party to be hijacked by an extreme fringe. Romney will more than likely prevail (nothing is certain in this race) and the apathetic will believe "it all worked out". Not the case. That apathy wounded their candidate. Not because tough primaries harm a contenders chances, Obama is very recent proof they don't, but because they never rallied around "their guy". They left him out there hanging and he was forced to try to break through his ceiling and gain more support. Instead of picking up those numbers from independents and moderates he finally had to try to steal them from the far right. The Tea Party crowd is anything but apathetic. They are energized, motivated by fear. They are active, motivated by incompetence. They are demanding, motivated by misinformation. To allow them to continue to guide this vessel is reckless, irresponsible, and lazy.
Tomorrow is a huge day is you have an interest in politics. It's very similar, ironically, to the beginning of the NASCAR season. Super Tuesday is The Daytona 500 of races. There are many more to follow but this one is special, it's huge, it's super. The winner wins more in this collective contest than in any other. The race will shift gears after tomorrow and the crew that made the best pits, the most timely passes, and ran the best line will prevail.
