Caucus Blockus

Tomorrow is a pretty exciting day if you're a political junkie. It officially kicks off the start of the presidential election process as it pertains to the role the citizens play in the scheme. Iowa will hold the first event that is meant to, eventually, assign delegate votes for a particular candidate.

I could write a very lengthy piece explaining the Iowa Caucus procedure but I'm not up to it. But I will touch on a couple of the more important aspects of the process that make the event relevant and very exciting to monitor. Technically this isn't a primary but for all intents and purposes it is. The outcome of this process will indirectly result in the delegate votes being distributed for the candidate chosen by the participants of this caucus. Besides the fact Iowa is the first "test" for us to judge the performance of the candidates, it is very relevant because of the way the candidates have to campaign in the state to be competitive.

Unlike most of the country, the citizens of Iowa actually get to meet the presidential candidates. Many of the serious contenders have traveled to all 99 counties, or the majority of them, holding town hall meetings and knocking on doors just to introduce themselves to people. Not that Iowa hasn't been inundated with negative ads this last month, but this won't be the only way they get to know the contenders. The people will get to shake hands, ask questions, stand next to the person they are voting for to compete for the presidency. This process will always make the state relevant, even if they aren't first. The difference being the candidates wouldn't feel the need to compete in the state if it wasn't first so they wouldn't spend the time in the state. But since the state is first the candidates have to compete according to the rules of the state, in this case a caucus.

My prediction for the Iowa Caucus results is the top three contenders in the GOP that are currently occupying the top three spots will perform accordingly. This might not seem that bold of a prediction and any other election cycle I might agree with you. However, in this wild and crazy cycle any prediction, even one that simply predicts an all favorite boxed trifecta one night in advance, that comes to realization is a feat.

I'm willing to predict the top three (Romney,Paul,and Santorum) will all be within six percent of each other, maybe even closer, and several percentages points ahead of the rest of the field. I predict this entire process will do nothing to clear up the muddy waters of trying to figure out how this entire GOP process is going to unfold. No matter which order of first, second, or third any of these three finish really matters much on the grand scheme of things. There are things that do matter about the finishing order, just the difference, if it is within a small percentage, between the top isn't really that important. We will still know what we knew going into the caucus: About 25% of the base wants Romney, about 20% of the GOP is Libertarian and turns out at caucus events, and about 50% of the "conservatives" can't decide who they want to represent their party other than Romney.

The Ron Paul phenomenon of actually being taken somewhat seriously as a contender only presented itself because of the bizarre circumstance of the GOP field and the unwillingness of the party members to embrace a candidate. Throw in the fact that almost every other candidate that isn't Romney has seen time at the top of the polls, only to flat line after more exposure, with the fact that Paul's traditional following of about 20% of the party was enough to make him a winner in this weird cycle and the stage was set.

Even though I'm very much a realist and knew that Paul, even if he wins Iowa or has a solid showing, wouldn't be the guy the GOP would settle on, I was hopeful he would force them to finally make a decision and pick a type of candidate to back: The one the base wants (Romney) or one that slaps the base in the face (Paul). Paul isn't the only candidate that slaps the base in the face, but it just seemed the timing was right that the party would finally have to settle on Romney or not Romney as they actually began to divvy up the delegate votes. However, with the emergence of Santorum it appears they just aren't ready to make such a final decision.

Gingrich was the man to beat just a few weeks back. Before him it had been Trump, Bachmann, Perry, and Cain. Gingrich rose and fell just like the rest. Paul didn't rise, his numbers are always the same. It just happened the one state where his campaign style resonates happened to be up and the base was still up the air and no one candidate can muster any more than a quarter of the vote. So it made it seem like it was Paul's turn to "be the man" to beat Romney. It was just an illusion that was created by indecision and timing of the caucus coupled with Paul's loyal following.

As crazy as it seems to predict this, I suppose the GOP isn't through trying to find the right guy to beat Mitt and Rick Santorum is next in line. If the Iowa Caucus were two weeks ago Gingrich would have rolled to a victory. If the caucus was two weeks from now I think Santorum would cruise. However, as it stands the top three guys will all finish very close to each other for very different reasons. Two have peaked, one can never get more than 20 percent and the other can't figure out how to raise his ceiling above 25, and the third is benefiting from the endurance to stay in the field for no apparent reason. And the rest of the field will all finish very close to each other near the bottom for very similar reasons. But nothing will be different than how it was before the day started. The GOP is in another flux of choosing another candidate to rally behind and Santorum replacing Gingrich in the top three will ensure it.

For the longest I was under the impression the "base" was simply outnumbered and wouldn't get Romney on the ticket. They obviously occupy about 25% of the "conservative" party, evidenced by the constant polling of Mitt's numbers. I didn't envision a way for Romney to change his perception amongst those in the party that apparently don't want him to win. But it is this prediction of the Iowa Caucus that allows me to see the light for Romney. This never ending cycle of flux of support for all of the other candidates won't stop, they will continue this process until a Romney victory becomes inevitable. It won't be because everyone finally "came around" to Romney, it will be because they never "came around" to any one and stayed with them for longer than a month that will allow Romney to at least "show" in every primary. That will be better than any other candidate will be able to achieve. When they have exhausted all of the candidates and given them all the top billing and spotlight for a short period of time, they will resort to recycling through the discarded list and the Perry's of the field will reemerge again. In the end Romney will be consistently chalking up delegates along the way. He won't be recording major wins, except in a few favorable states, but he will plug along doing what it takes.

This is my prediction of how Romney eventually wins the Republican nomination process. It won't be pretty and it won't be traditional. However, it should be exciting and fun to follow and it all kicks of tomorrow in Iowa.