Thursday, January 12, 2012

Timeline

Facebook was scheduled to unleash its new Timeline for everyone right before Christmas. It allows people to voluntarily switch to Timeline prior to the mandatory conversion, whenever that might be, already and a small percentage of people on my friend's list currently have the new look. When I first posted about Timeline I stated that I love it but suspected most people would hate it when they finally got it. And from reading others comments on the site I can tell the majority of people don't like it and advise others not to make the change until they have to.

I stand by my claim and still love Timeline. I can't wait until Facebook makes everyone have it. Visiting someone's wall is so much more enjoyable and exciting. I have clicked on a ton of my friends to see which are using it and have loved every wall I've seen from the one's that have it. The gigantic photo is such a cool introduction to the person. I truly haven't seen one I haven't liked.

Beyond that, just visiting the wall and seeing what the person has been up to is way more user friendly and gives a much more coherent view of what's been going on. Retrieving posts from months or years gone by is as easy a few clicks. Previously it was almost impossible to go back and view something from 2009, and if it could physically be done who would want to do it? I love seeing what I posted on each day one year prior, or two years. Sometimes I don't even know what I was talking about (that probably doesn't surprise some of you and something you've already discovered) or what motivated me to post. I love seeing what was going on in my friends life last year at this time.




There are gripes that others have that I share. However, I had gripes about some of the features on Facebook prior to Timeline. And the bonuses, at least to me, far outweigh the negatives, exponentially. Others complain they don't like the fact they feel like they aren't getting everyone's posts. I agree. Sometimes when I visit a wall I know I didn't see the original post. If it just happened a time or two I could dismiss it, however, it occurs on a more frequent basis. But the ticker is very good about showing what is going on and what is "trending" at any given moment. At first I didn't really care for the feature simply because I thought I wouldn't use it and it took up space. But my feelings have changed and I think it compliments Timeline quite well.

I know we all have different uses for Facebook. For me, I'm not particularly interested in the mundane things many people choose to post. I don't mean that to be callous, I sincerely care about many people on my friends list. But when I visit Facebook I want to be entertained. That doesn't mean everything has to be funny or amazing or the best thing ever, but I want to be interested in the post at some level.

This is probably why Timeline suits my fancy more than the average user. I think I demand more when visiting the site than most. I try to provide more to my viewers in return. I used to log on to Facebook and scroll down and catch up on all of the posts that occurred since my last visit. I no longer feel the need to perform this task with Timeline. Don't get me wrong, I still do from time to time, but I don't really have to anymore. My routine has changed to only scrolling down a little bit and seeing what's been going on recently. If something has been posted earlier that still has traction and activity then I'll notice the comments on the ticker. If I'm going to be on for any length of time then I'm going to make my rounds on some friends walls to see what they've been up to.

The fact of the matter is most people don't like change. Timeline is a pretty noticeable difference from the old look (the actual "home" wall where you see everyone's post is the same, good news to many of you) and that means big change. So it's only natural that it will get negative reviews in the beginning when everyone has it. And it might sustain negative reviews from those that want to be kept up to date on every detail of everyone's daily activities, but I love it and it works for me. There are those out there that have shown me their wall is worth a visit and it is me that is missing out if I don't take the time to visit it. And for those people I love how Timeline tells their story to me, so much more colorfully and presented to me by a theme of their choosing. Good stuff.

A Donkey, An Elephant, And A Horace

Have you ever heard anyone state they believe English should be our official language? If you had to guess their political affiliation, liberal or conservative, what would you guess? It has been my experience the majority of people that demand English only laws usually claim they have "conservative" views.

My point of contention has nothing to do with whether or not the claim at hand is "right" or "wrong", I can see benefits from having an official language and I can see unnecessary problems being created by enacting such a position. I'm more concerned on the notion of this idea being consistent with conservative views. Currently there is nothing making banks place Spanish on their ATM's, nothing that makes a company purchase a billboard in Spanish, nothing that makes my phone provider prompt me to select my preferred language. These things are all in place because these private industries choose to put them in effect. They profit because of them or they wouldn't do them.

A true conservative position would stand on the side of less government and regulation. If we decided we wanted our government to make English our official language how would we do it? Would we make a law, add an Amendment to the Constitution? This is more government and it takes away liberties of private companies to operate how they choose. Pure and simple, it's regulation. Again, I'm not arguing the point of whether or not we should do this, I'm simply addressing the fact that the idea isn't conservative.

Recently I posted on a story in the local newspaper that covered a weekend DUI checkpoint where over one hundred vehicles were pulled over and one intoxicated driver was located. Meanwhile, fifty five citations were issued to drivers that weren't pulled over for probable cause, rather a mandatory search of their property by the police. I'm not bashing police. And I'm not bashing people that support checkpoints. I'm pointing out this type of thinking isn't conservative. In this case it's just the opposite, it's quite liberal and very progressive.

Our Founding Fathers believed the government shouldn't have the ability to get into the private business of the citizens if those citizens weren't breaking any laws or causing any harm. If you believe times have changed and drunk drivers pose a serious enough threat to the public at large that we need to have police officers set up operations to randomly pull vehicles over and check for intoxication, so be it. Many people would agree with you. However, this isn't conservative by any means. In our Founding Fathers eyes they viewed things as people and the property of people. A car would be no different than a home, or a gun, or painting to the drafters of the Constitution. If I could prove more people were killed each year in their home due to a gun than by a drunk driver on the road, would you be cool with police officers randomly checking your house for guns. And on top of that, if they didn't find any illegal weapons, just go ahead and write you some tickets for your pot plants or your prescription Vicodin that belongs to a family member that you borrowed or your illegal cable box or cite you for throwing recyclables in the wrong side of the trash? Maybe times will change someday and we'll get to this point. But if we do it won't be considered conservative.

Mitt Romney, prior to being the Governor of Massachusetts, helped create a company called Bain Capital. The company basically consisted of some pretty rich people pulling together $37 million dollars to invest into other companies to, obviously, generate revenue for Bain Capital in the long run. The company was formed in 1984 but found itself reluctant to pull the trigger on investing any of its capital because they found almost every opportunity too high risk. Eventually, in 1986, Bain found a small business they believed offered the potential they sought for their investment, a store by the name of Staples. In 1986 when Bain pumped millions into Staples they were one store big. By the year 2011 Staples had grown to over 2000 stores. Romney served on the board of directors for Staples for over a decade.

Bain Capital was originally created to invest in start up businesses. After Bain was able to establish itself and enjoy returns on its investments it ventured into new areas to seek profit. One of those avenues involved buying out troubled companies. Most of the time the buyout led to the failing company surviving and going on to turn profits again. However, some of the time the companies didn't make it.

Now that Romney seems to be on track to winning the Republican nomination other candidates in the field are attacking him for his involvement with Bain Capital. Some have even called his venture capitalism "vulture capitalism". Newt Gingrich claims he is more conservative than Romney because of Romney's business of buying out failing companies. Right now in South Carolina (next on the docket for primaries) Gingrich's crowd are showing commercials of regular people that lost their jobs "because of Bain" and their lives are now in ruin. The people then go on to blame Romney personally.

I can't stress this enough, I'm not arguing for or against this type of conduct. To be candid, this type of business venture seems very legitimate to me and isn't as "evil" as it's made out to be, but that's here nor there. I'm addressing the fact there are millions of people that claim "conservative" values that look at Bain Capital and see it as un-American. I have news for these people: it's American as apple pie. It's the freedom of private entities to conduct business freely, without regulation, with the intent of gaining profit.

The conservative party is hardly conservative anymore. When W. Bush was President he spent money like it was going out of style and left us with record deficits. He started a "pre-emptive" war. He pushed the Patriot Act. None of these things are conservative by any means. Ironically, anyone that calls out any of these people for their inconsistent views is deemed a RINO (Republican in name only).




I admit I might not be "hardcore" conservative, mostly because I'm not hardcore anything, but I do believe most of my views are pretty conservative. That's why I find it so frustrating that the Republican Party finds itself in such a confused state. I know there are those on my friends list that think I've turned liberal and simply enjoy bashing Republicans. That's not it at all. It only has to do with the fact the party that is most likely to promote my conservative views has been hijacked by people that aren't conservative at all. They don't even understand what it means to be conservative. They get fired up over one issue and then swallow the pill on everything else. It's embarrassing.

We're so divided and worried about image and power that we are reluctant to admonish our own crowd when it is needed. Priests molest children and it takes atheists to demand criminal justice take place. People are so invested into their own agenda they can't have it tarnished. My church will look bad if I report this so I'll just keep my mouth shut. Penn State doesn't report child molestation because it will make the school look bad. Cops can't admit pepper spraying non-violent college students isn't a wise tactic. BP can't come forward with safety violations and hazards. Republicans can't spank the crowd that has hijacked their party and trampled on the idea they regard as sacred: conservatism. We no longer yearn for honest dialogue, based on fact and reason and integrity. Instead, we opt for the easy option, no matter how detrimental it may be in the long run. We lie to ourselves about what we are. We label ourselves something and it doesn't matter if we meet the criteria, it's easy and feels good. We are a strange creature.

"We should not care much whether those thus united (against slavery) were designated 'Whig,' 'Free Democrat' or something else; though we think some simple name like 'Republican' would more fitly designate those who had united to restore the Union to its true mission of champion and promulgator of Liberty rather than propagandist of slavery." ~ Horace Greeley

Saturday, January 7, 2012

If It's Not Broke Don't Fix It

I consider myself a sports fan. I'm not a fanatic but I do enjoy watching the best of the best duke it out in competition. I watch Major League Baseball, The College World Series and some of the playoff rounds prior, The National Football League, and college football, The National Hockey League when the playoffs start, World Cup Soccer, The Olympics, and college basketball to name a few.

If you noticed in the above list I didn't mention the National Basketball Association. I confess I can't help myself when they finally make it to the conference finals that I get interested, but I seriously don't watch a game all year long. They have destroyed the game. College basketball is so true to the sport, the NBA is a toned down version of the Globetrotters. I could go into great detail in all of the ways I think they have tarnished their own game but I authored a very lengthy piece in my last effort and I'm on a quest to keep this concise. The NBA, in order to give the fans what they want, have really changed the game. As a fan of sport, any sport, I just don't think that's cool.

Major League baseball has tried to do the same: steroids, corked bats, dimension changes at stadiums, juiced balls?, ridiculous strike zones. I suspect because baseball is our first love we don't like it when the tradition is changed too much. Even though these things have, and do, occur, we frown upon them and encourage the game be played the way it was meant to be played. None of us feel good about the home run asterisk era.

Which leads me to the NFL. Dan Marino held the record for the most yards passing in one season with 5,084, set in 1984. He was the first player to throw for over five thousand yards in the history of the game. In 2008 Drew Brees fell just shy, fifteen yards, of breaking Marino's mark. However, he did surpass the 5,000 yard mark and became only the second player in the history of the league to achieve this feat. This year three players eclipsed 5,000 yards: Brady, Stafford, and Brees (again).

I'm cool that sport is entertainment. I'm just not cool when we alter the game to make it more entertaining. The rules have been altered and the referees have been instructed to make the game more offensive oriented. I suppose it is possible three dudes all broke the 5,000 in the same year, when only two guys had ever done it, and it could just be the way it is,but I'm a huge fan of Occam's Razor and that isn't the simplest explanation.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

He Ain't Heavy, He's A Hologram

It is strange the things you remember in your life. I mean the things that you can never forget, things embedded into your very fiber. Naturally there are enormous milestone events that imprint themselves deep into your memory: marriage, birthing a child, graduations, career goals achieved, deaths, etc... But what I'm talking about is the random event, the thing that wasn't on your radar, that impacted your life in ways you never imagined.

Even though I don't remember the exact date, very close to twenty years ago would be my best guess, I can remember the people I was with and the gist of the conversation. The conversation involved one of the craziest things I had ever heard in my life (and still is to this day) and I found it mind boggling. I was at a party with two of my very good friends when one of them began talking about "entanglement". I'm not even sure if that's what he called it at the time but he explained it and I was fascinated.

Volumes have been written on this subject and I encourage you to look into if this is something new to you. However, I'm only going to briefly touch on what it is so you can relate to my story going forward. Here is a pretty solid description of entanglement:
Quantum entanglement occurs when particles such as photons, electrons, molecules as large as "buckyballs", and even small diamonds interact physically and then become separated; the type of interaction is such that each resulting member of a pair is properly described by the same quantum mechanical description (state), which is indefinite in terms of important factors such as position,momentum, spin, polarization, etc. ~ Wikipedia (so you know it's true)

I only picked that particular description of entanglement because it mentioned buckyballs. To put it in the most basic of terms ... What happens to one particle directly affects another particle somewhere else in the universe. If science isn't your thing and my "entanglement for dummies" definition still seems Chinese to you, the major mind blowing idea that comes from this occurrence is the fact that this information can travel from one particle to another instantaneously. This means something could happen to one particle and its entangled partner particle could be 10 billion miles away and it would still affect it instantly. This defies everything we understand about the universal speed limit of 186,000 miles a second, the speed of light. If, in fact, information is actually travelling between particles on opposite ends of the universe it would have to move thousands of times the speed of light.

I've always considered myself fairly deep but after listening to this conversation (I'm sure I didn't contribute in any way other than to confirm that what I was hearing was as crazy to my friends as it was to me) I discovered I wasn't nearly as deep as I once thought. It had never occurred to me that things might not be what they seem. It changed forever how I processed everything.

ACT II

Holograms are two dimensional surfaces that show three dimensional objects. When I think of a hologram I always think of R2D2 projecting Princess Leia to Luke and C3PO. Over thirty years later we really haven't noticed too much improvement in the quality of holograms we encounter. They can be found everywhere: driver's license, credit card, CD's. But most of them are pretty cheesy and hardly demonstrate the full potential of a hologram. With the right equipment (lasers, mirrors, beam splitters and so on) we have the ability to make precise holograms that look incredibly real. What's really cool is no special eye wear is needed.


We can do some pretty cool things with holograms: make them change color, make them appear to be looking at you when you walk across the room, and even make them appear to look like completely different objects when viewed from different angles. But the coolest thing about a hologram, in my humble opinion, is the fact that you can cut one in half, and each half contains whole views of the entire holographic image. You could go on and cut another piece and it, too, would contain a whole view of the entire image. If you were able to dissect it into a million pieces, each of those pieces would contain a whole view of the image. It's incredible.

ACT III

Black holes are what remain when massive stars die. They are spooky things and once something passes the event horizon of the black hole it is gone from the universe forever. At least that's what we thought until relatively recently. Stephen Hawking was troubled for over thirty years with this paradox of black holes destroying information. Everything that is currently in the universe has been here all along and will always be here as long as the universe exists. Bermuda triangle type things that gobbled up information didn't seem to jive with what we thought we knew about the nature of everything. Everything indicates that physics works in both directions, forward and backward, but this doesn't ring true if things get eaten up and destroyed going in one direction. Thankfully, fairly recently our understanding of how black holes work has shifted. They're not the giant PacMan's of the universe after all.




Instead of information (and when I say information I mean anything, everything is information) disappearing, forever lost, in black holes, the information is believed to be stored on the surface area of the black hole, later to be emitted back into the universe. Eventually the black hole will die and send the stored information, albeit jumbled and unrecognizable as the same form as when it made contact with the hole, back to the universe. The physicists that support the idea of black holes storing information have demonstrated how it works by explaining how a hologram works in two and three dimensions.

ACT IV

I mentioned earlier the strangest thing I think I've ever heard occurred when I learned of quantum entanglement. A very close rival when it comes to extremely mind boggling ideas to enter my brain is the "double slit experiment". Cutting right to the chase, this experiment showed us that things don't always do what we think they should do when we aren't observing them. There are some really good videos that break it down for school aged children but it is still a hard concept to grasp.




A single photon was fired through either slit A or slit B and the results were tracked when the photon reached its destination. Naturally, when the scientists fired the photon through slit A they expected to see it hit the wall in a location that would indicate it traveled through slit A. However, what they discovered is when the photon is traveling, and not being observed, it does all possible outcomes: it goes through slit A and not through slit B, goes through slit B and not slit A, both slits at the same time, and neither slit. Then when they actually watched the particle to see which slit it went through, it went through the one it was supposed to every time. If it's hard for you to comprehend don't be ashamed, it baffles physicists too. They fired a single particle and it acted like a wave.

FINAL ACT

David Bohm was an American physicist that was born in 1917 and argued with Einstein about the nature of reality. One of Bohm’s most startling assertions is that the tangible reality of our everyday lives is really a kind of illusion, like a holographic image. Underlying it is a deeper order of existence, a vast and more primary level of reality that gives birth to all the objects and appearances of our physical world in much the same way that a piece of holographic film gives birth to a hologram. He calls this deeper level of reality the implicate (which means enfolded or hidden) order, and he refers to our own level or existence as the explicate, or unfolded order. Put another way, electrons and all other particles are no more substantive or permanent then the form a geyser of water takes as it gushes out of a fountain. They are sustained by a constant influx from the implicate order, and when a particle appears to be destroyed, it is not lost.

Bohm believed his understanding of reality explained a lot more about what we experience. We know today that the universe is made up of almost all empty space. We (meaning humans, not really America because we don't feel the need to invest in science) are currently conducting amazing experiments at CERN trying to locate a particle that gives mass to all particles. It doesn't make sense to us how so much of the universe is nothing but there seems to be so much mass to the few things that are here.

Hardly a perfect analogy but it will suffice ... Imagine you had a handful of pennies and you laid your bicycle on its side and dropped the pennies through the motionless spokes. Undoubtedly, all of the pennies would pass through the spokes and hit the ground. Sure, they would hit some of the spokes along the way but it would seem unlikely any of the pennies would be halted from their fall by miraculously landing in just the perfect way as to balance it on one spoke. So if you had ten pennies and stood over your sideways bike tire and dropped them, all ten pennies would hit the ground. However, if you were able to spin the tire at a high rate of speed, let's say the speed of light, and you did this same experiment, I would be willing to bet not one penny would make it through the spokes. It would seem as if the inner surface of the wheels where the spokes occupy was a solid surface. Yet, most of the area is actually nothing.

If our reality is more like a hologram than we think (and who has ever really thought our reality was some type of hologram?) it could change some of the ways we look at things. Our senses, the only way we experience reality, provide us with the tools of survival. They weren't evolved to detect the nature of our reality. Things work very well at the macro level, it is only when we try to get down to the micro level that things fall apart. Particles pop in and out of existence and they don't behave they way we would expect them to.

Karl H. Pribram is a professor at Georgetown University, in the United States, and an emeritus professor of psychology and psychiatry at Stanford University and Radford University and board-certified as a neurosurgeon. Pribram's neurobehavioral experiments established the composition of the limbic system and the executive functions of the prefrontal cortex. Pribram also discovered the sensory specific systems of the association cortex, and showed that these systems operate to organize the choices we make among sensory stimuli, not the sensing of the stimuli themselves.




Pribram was extremely interested with how we stored and recollected memories. Pribram had discovered memories weren't logged as single events in individual places in our brains. Instead, they are networked out to all locations and when we think a thought we receive all sorts of information that help us piece it all together. Imagine I say George W. Bush. You might receive thoughts and ideas about Texas, Governor, man, cowboy hat, baseball, fool me once shame on me fool me twice shame on ... well you know how it goes, President, Katrina, war, debt, Laura, daughters, swagger, and thousands more all at the same time coming from all recesses of your brain. This was a very new observation and idea. Pribam later collaborated with Bohm (Pribam contacted Bohm to inquire about the physics perspective on the holographic idea) on a human cognition model and called it the "Holonomic Brain Theory".

From Wikipedia:
The holonomic brain theory is a model for human cognition that is drastically different from conventionally accepted ideas: Pribram and Bohm posit a model of cognitive function as being guided by a matrix of neurological wave interference patterns situated temporally between holographic Gestalt perception and discrete, affective, quantum vectors derived from reward anticipation potentials.

There are those wave functions again. If we are in some sort of hologram there are a million places to take the conversation. And trust me when I tell you the conversation has gone a million places already. My main motivation for writing this piece was mostly based on the daunting task of trying to find relevant information about this subject. There are many super bright people that discuss these things on forums and on their own blogs, but far too often it takes a turn into "The Secret" type stuff and "Law of Attraction" and I just don't see the connection.

FINAL FINAL ACT

Even though I think too many people take these progressive ideas too far, I do concede I think there is a lot of truth in many organizations of all rank and file. There have been people for thousands of years that have been telling us our reality isn't real. And I'm not talking about nut jobs, I mean real religions and great thinkers. And many a past and current religion seems to have a lot of these ideas when they teach unity and love. And Christianity's seven day creation story seems a lot more plausible if God was simply creating a hologram. "Let there be light" takes on a whole new meaning. It just seems more than likely that after hundreds, and even thousands, of years of passing down stories these things got altered and tailored to suit the needs of those in power.

If we live in a hologram or not doesn't really answer some of the deeper questions in life. It certainly doesn't answer any of the "why's". It really just begins to answer some "what's" and "how's". But what we are is terribly important knowledge to have. If we have properties of a hologram than we are all connected, we all contain the entire picture. When I gaze at my 60" high definition television the picture is crystal clear. However, if I magnified it down to just one pixel nothing would make sense. I suspect this is why things break down for us at the quantum level, we can never go small enough, eventually it will just become a blur. When we believe we are an individual that isn't part of the bigger picture, and possess the bigger picture within us, then we have squandered an amazing gift.

Entanglement, double slit experiment, black holes, wave functions and frequencies all fit nicely into the holographic model. Mass, something many countries are spending millions to understand, makes a lot more sense. Obviously, this theory isn't perfect and needs to iron out some things, but what theory doesn't, especially one that is relatively new? And it has gained a ton of traction with some very respected scientists, this isn't just some fringe idea that isn't being taken seriously.

We stare at our computer all day long and it is nothing more than 0's and 1's. It isn't what it seems until it gets into our head. Nor is our tv screen, nor the voice on the other end of the phone, the music in your car, nor the video game that comes to life, they are all just waves and frequencies and 0's and 1's. Things all around you, in your everyday life, are mostly made of nothing or not what it seems and it all feels so counter intuitive to think of it any other way than the way we sense it. But our senses are the least reliable tool to understand the nature of the universe. They're not even particularly good at doing what they're supposed to do, compared with many other animals that have more keen senses. Pilots train in simulators. Have you gone to the theater and witnessed Avatar? Take off the glasses and look at the screen, it isn't what it seems. Put them on and the light hitting a flat surface creates an incredibly real sensation. We know we can be fooled.




I have no idea how it all works. I find it exciting that we have the desire to know, no other animal occupies its time wondering why they exist. In the end, it only really matters to me so we can enjoy this short little ride, holographic or not. The more we know about ourselves, the more we discover the truth about what we are, the easier it is to understand how to make ourselves happy. If we accept what the universe puts in front of us instead of fighting back every step of the way, against every change, against every difference, then our journey might be more enjoyable.

"Somewhere, something incredible is waiting to be known." ~ Carl Sagan

Monday, January 2, 2012

Caucus Blockus


Tomorrow is a pretty exciting day if you're a political junkie. It officially kicks off the start of the presidential election process as it pertains to the role the citizens play in the scheme. Iowa will hold the first event that is meant to, eventually, assign delegate votes for a particular candidate.

I could write a very lengthy piece explaining the Iowa Caucus procedure but I'm not up to it. But I will touch on a couple of the more important aspects of the process that make the event relevant and very exciting to monitor. Technically this isn't a primary but for all intents and purposes it is. The outcome of this process will indirectly result in the delegate votes being distributed for the candidate chosen by the participants of this caucus. Besides the fact Iowa is the first "test" for us to judge the performance of the candidates, it is very relevant because of the way the candidates have to campaign in the state to be competitive.

Unlike most of the country, the citizens of Iowa actually get to meet the presidential candidates. Many of the serious contenders have traveled to all 99 counties, or the majority of them, holding town hall meetings and knocking on doors just to introduce themselves to people. Not that Iowa hasn't been inundated with negative ads this last month, but this won't be the only way they get to know the contenders. The people will get to shake hands, ask questions, stand next to the person they are voting for to compete for the presidency. This process will always make the state relevant, even if they aren't first. The difference being the candidates wouldn't feel the need to compete in the state if it wasn't first so they wouldn't spend the time in the state. But since the state is first the candidates have to compete according to the rules of the state, in this case a caucus.

My prediction for the Iowa Caucus results is the top three contenders in the GOP that are currently occupying the top three spots will perform accordingly. This might not seem that bold of a prediction and any other election cycle I might agree with you. However, in this wild and crazy cycle any prediction, even one that simply predicts an all favorite boxed trifecta one night in advance, that comes to realization is a feat.

I'm willing to predict the top three (Romney,Paul,and Santorum) will all be within six percent of each other, maybe even closer, and several percentages points ahead of the rest of the field. I predict this entire process will do nothing to clear up the muddy waters of trying to figure out how this entire GOP process is going to unfold. No matter which order of first, second, or third any of these three finish really matters much on the grand scheme of things. There are things that do matter about the finishing order, just the difference, if it is within a small percentage, between the top isn't really that important. We will still know what we knew going into the caucus: About 25% of the base wants Romney, about 20% of the GOP is Libertarian and turns out at caucus events, and about 50% of the "conservatives" can't decide who they want to represent their party other than Romney.

The Ron Paul phenomenon of actually being taken somewhat seriously as a contender only presented itself because of the bizarre circumstance of the GOP field and the unwillingness of the party members to embrace a candidate. Throw in the fact that almost every other candidate that isn't Romney has seen time at the top of the polls, only to flat line after more exposure, with the fact that Paul's traditional following of about 20% of the party was enough to make him a winner in this weird cycle and the stage was set.

Even though I'm very much a realist and knew that Paul, even if he wins Iowa or has a solid showing, wouldn't be the guy the GOP would settle on, I was hopeful he would force them to finally make a decision and pick a type of candidate to back: The one the base wants (Romney) or one that slaps the base in the face (Paul). Paul isn't the only candidate that slaps the base in the face, but it just seemed the timing was right that the party would finally have to settle on Romney or not Romney as they actually began to divvy up the delegate votes. However, with the emergence of Santorum it appears they just aren't ready to make such a final decision.

Gingrich was the man to beat just a few weeks back. Before him it had been Trump, Bachmann, Perry, and Cain. Gingrich rose and fell just like the rest. Paul didn't rise, his numbers are always the same. It just happened the one state where his campaign style resonates happened to be up and the base was still up the air and no one candidate can muster any more than a quarter of the vote. So it made it seem like it was Paul's turn to "be the man" to beat Romney. It was just an illusion that was created by indecision and timing of the caucus coupled with Paul's loyal following.

As crazy as it seems to predict this, I suppose the GOP isn't through trying to find the right guy to beat Mitt and Rick Santorum is next in line. If the Iowa Caucus were two weeks ago Gingrich would have rolled to a victory. If the caucus was two weeks from now I think Santorum would cruise. However, as it stands the top three guys will all finish very close to each other for very different reasons. Two have peaked, one can never get more than 20 percent and the other can't figure out how to raise his ceiling above 25, and the third is benefiting from the endurance to stay in the field for no apparent reason. And the rest of the field will all finish very close to each other near the bottom for very similar reasons. But nothing will be different than how it was before the day started. The GOP is in another flux of choosing another candidate to rally behind and Santorum replacing Gingrich in the top three will ensure it.

For the longest I was under the impression the "base" was simply outnumbered and wouldn't get Romney on the ticket. They obviously occupy about 25% of the "conservative" party, evidenced by the constant polling of Mitt's numbers. I didn't envision a way for Romney to change his perception amongst those in the party that apparently don't want him to win. But it is this prediction of the Iowa Caucus that allows me to see the light for Romney. This never ending cycle of flux of support for all of the other candidates won't stop, they will continue this process until a Romney victory becomes inevitable. It won't be because everyone finally "came around" to Romney, it will be because they never "came around" to any one and stayed with them for longer than a month that will allow Romney to at least "show" in every primary. That will be better than any other candidate will be able to achieve. When they have exhausted all of the candidates and given them all the top billing and spotlight for a short period of time, they will resort to recycling through the discarded list and the Perry's of the field will reemerge again. In the end Romney will be consistently chalking up delegates along the way. He won't be recording major wins, except in a few favorable states, but he will plug along doing what it takes.

This is my prediction of how Romney eventually wins the Republican nomination process. It won't be pretty and it won't be traditional. However, it should be exciting and fun to follow and it all kicks of tomorrow in Iowa.